The Litvinenko Mystery Train

As the Litvinenko Mystery Train rolls on, the theories surrounding his demise appear to be multiplying by the day. There are some who pose as op-ed columnists who appear to have it all sorted out. Charles Krauthammer invokes the scientific principle of Occam’s Razor to support his simplistic and utterly baseless conclusion that Putin is directly responsible for the murder. I don't know why this schmuck garners so many column inches, but he does. His own peculiar brand of bigotry, his blinkered approach and his neo-con rantings collectively wing their merry way across the Atlantic to grace the pages of the Irish Times, which is one more reason I can add to the ever-growing list of reasons why I refuse to buy the paper.

Occam's Razor may well be a suitable means of drawing conclusions from natural phenomena, but as a means of crime-solving, it ranks up there with 'The Butler Did It'. If this principle were to be universally applied to the world of crime detection, every murder will have been carried out by the next-of-kin (for financial motives, of course) and every burglary will have perpetrated by your next-door neighbour. A far more reliable method of getting to the bottom of a complex criminal case is to employ the maxim of Cassius, as quoted by Marcus Tullius Cicero.... "cui bono?". Krauthammer's article deserves a rebuttal, primarily because despite the usual strident self-confidence, it is full of fallacies that are spawned by the simplistic application of a scientific principle to the complexities of human behaviour.

For starters, he claims that the deathbed allegation by Litvinenko - directly accusing Putin of being responsible for his murder - as being a "testimony delivered on the only reliable lie detector ever invented". This is patent nonsense, as the reliability of deathbed lie detector really only comes into play when it is the perpetrator that is dying. Perhaps if Litvinenko was a religious man, and had a belief in an afterlife, he may have been reluctant to bear false witness, but there is no evidence to support this conclusion.

Next up he attempts to relate the murder of Litvinenko to that of Anna Politkovskaya when there is no evidence, not even a the slightest bit, that the two cases are connected. There is also no evidence that the Russian administration was responsible for her murder, but that doesn't stop Mr. Krauthammer from pushing his assumptions as if they were the next best thing to cold, hard facts. He then goes on to drag out that old chestnut - the 'poisoning' of Viktor Yushchenko, which remains unsolved despite a thorough investigation by Ukrainian police. Justin Raimondo at antiwar.com has more than adequately explored the evidence on the Yushchenko poisoning in articles that can be found here, here, and here. Suffice to say that far from being clear, the cause of the disfigurement of Yushchenko is still a mystery.

And one chestnut follows another... Krauthammer claims that "opponents of Putin have been falling like flies. Some jailed, some exiled, some killed.", when in fact it is members of the crimnal, kleptomaniac oligarchy that has gone into self-imposed exile or have found themselves in prison having been found guilty of fraud. He then goes on to make the claim that Russia has a "long and distinguished history of state-sponsored assassination" based solely on the murder of Trotsky and a wild assumption that the attempted assassination of late Pope implicated the involvement of more than just Bulgaria.

These poor, besieged individuals to whom Krauthammer bestows the seemingly innocuous status of "opponents of Putin" were guilty of purloining the natural resources and industries of the former Soviet Union, resources that rightly belonged to everyone in Russia. They did this with a slight of hand and with the assistance of the rigged privatisations of the Yeltsin administration. I find it hard to show these criminals the same sympathy that Mr Krauthammer obviously displays, but then again, perhaps that is because I don't share the same allegiences.

Based on currently available evidence, Russia has no more and no less of a history of state-sponsored targeted murder than any other nation. Indeed, I would hazard a guess that the United States and her allies are far more proficient at 'suiciding' opponents than Russia could ever be. This is, of course, only my opinion.

Next on the menu is the makings of a world-class eulogy..."If we were not mourning a brave man who has just died a horrible death". Give me a break! What's next? The campaign to canonise "Saint Sasha"? While the manner of his death was undoubtedly horrible, it is at least less prolonged than the deaths of those who have been the victims of any one of the cruel and inhumane methods used by the modern war machine, and I don't see Mr Krauthammer carving too many statues to their memories. Indeed, if I recall correctly, he is on frequently on the sidelines waving his pom-poms in support of his home team.

Let's take a moment remember who this guy Litvinenko was. He was an ex-spy and by definition was involved in the very murky underworld of espionage. He had counted numerous dodgy characters amongst his friends. Both Litvinenko and the shady associate he met in the London restaurant - self-styled "professor" and "environmental security expert" Mario Scaramella - have been implicated in arms-trafficking. Mr Scaramella has been arrested on weapons-smuggling charges in Italy, but the anti-Putin, Russphobe chorus seem to be reluctant to make any connection between his activities and the demise of his associate, Litvinenko. Litvinenko was reported to be desperate to get his hands on cash and as a consequence was involved in blackmail schemes with several Russian mafia figures and politicians as the targets.

In a fleeting glimpse of the rational, our esteemed op-ed columnist then points out the way poisoning "evokes the great classical era of raison d’etat rubouts by the Borgias and the Medicis" but then quickly ends this brief excursion to the land of lucidity when he barks that "the first reported radiological assassination in history adds an element of the baroque of which a world-class thug outfit such as the KGB (now given new initials) should be proud." He should remember the old saying - don't point the finger, as there will be four left to point back at you. In the eyes of the world outside of the neo-con world (the neosphere), the contest for "world-class thug outfit" has already finished and has ended with a tie between the CIA and Mossad for first place, with the former KGB taking a poor second place.

In a parting shot, Mr Krauthammer claims that Litivenko may have been 'small fry' but his so-called 'investigations' made him a far more credible target. I hate to burst this bubble, but the evidence points entierely in the other direction. Litvinenko's so-called 'investigations' are widely thought to be little more than the ravings of a lunatic. In one of the books he wrote he accused the Russian government of being responsible for the 1999 terrorist attacks carried out in Russian cities, for which Chechen terrorists were blamed. Not only did he fail to provide any evidence for this, but he then went on to make the utterly ludicruous claims that the FSB was secretly funding al-Qaeda (a database of terrorists for hire set up by the CIA) and that Russia was behind the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11th, 2001. With a pedigree like that, you can be sure that the guy was not perceived as a threat either by Putin or the FSB.

There's lots more in this story to discuss, but I'll leave it there for now, and perhaps return to it in the New Year. I'll leave you with this story, in The Times, that states "Sources in Spain last week said he had crossed Russian mafia figures. They claimed he had provided information that helped lead to the arrest in May of nine mafia members, including a senior gang leader with interests in Russia and Spain."

Unlike Charles Krauthammer, I can't claim to know who killed Sasha Litvineno. However, I am pretty sure who didn't kill him, and that's the Putin administration.